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Birds on the Brain

Thoughts on the Baltimore Orioles, Major League Baseball and personal experiences.

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Saturday, April 17, 2004

OUTLOOK: 2004 - A Speculative Stand



I feel a compelling need to get "something" on record before too much more time elapses. I was hoping to have fulltime internet access at the humble 'birds on the brain' abode by the start of the season. Unfortunately, such was not the case and I'm still maintaining my internet connection 15 miles away at my brother's house.

Although I meant to do a profile on the 2004 Orioles season, February and March flew by before I had done much more than tinker with one. Maybe next year! I do have a couple of things to offer; a projection of 2004 final MLB standings cold off the press as I had then completed two weeks ago. I had planned to post them with some detailed commentary. Instead, for now, they'll have to stand alone:

2004 Final Standing projections





















NL EastWINLOSSWPCTAL EastWINLOSSWPCT
Philadelphia9369.574Boston9765.599
Atlanta8874.543NY Yankees9567.586
Florida8280.506Toronto8478.519
Montreal8181.500Baltimore7785.475
NY Mets7191.438Tampa Bay6696.407
NL CentralWINLOSSWPCTAL CentralWINLOSSWPCT
Houston9666.593Minnesota8874.543
Chicago Cubs9468.580Kansas City8478.519
St. Louis8478.519Chicago WS7785.475
Pittsburgh6894.420Cleveland7191.438
Cincinnati6894.420Detroit52110.321
Milwaukee6399.389
NL WestWINLOSSWPCTAL WestWINLOSSWPCT
San Francisco9072.556Anaheim9864.605
Arizona8478.519Oakland9765.599
Los Angeles8379.512Seattle8478.519
San Diego7488.457Texas7290.444
Colorado6993.426



Why this table won't position correctly, I don't know. It must be something inherent in the blogger interface. Anyway, let me make a comment about the one "egregious" omission of pennant winners. Just because one franchise is able to amass a $180M payroll to field an all-star team doesn't mean that they'll automatically win a division or be a wildcard. And they'll get no guarantees from this quarter. With that said, here are the playoff projections from the 'birds on the brain' WAGE*.

AL E) Boston; AL C) Minnesota; AL W) Anaheim; AL wc) Oakland
ANA over MIN; BOS over OAK; ANA over BOS

NL E) Philadelphia ;NL C) Houston; NL W) San Francisco; NL wc) Chicago
HOU over SF; CHI over PHI; HOU over CHI

WS) HOU over ANA

* WAGE = Wild Assed Guess Engine



Sunday, February 22, 2004

Manifesto



I've been going through the mind numbing process of reviewing a long list of baseball blogs to decide which ones are of sufficient interest for posting to the sidebar of my own blog. In this dead zone between pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training and the position players due to report next week, there seems to be a lot of discussion about performance analysis and the sabrmetric revolution spawned by the publication of Moneyball. While I've always valued interpreting baseball statistics in my own way and I find many of the sabrmetric theories and statistical analyses available fascinating, much of it is too esoteric and complex for the casual fan to digest. Although the "mechanics" of baseball can be quite complicated, at a basic level, it's really a simple game. Pitch the ball. Hit the ball. Catch the ball. Throw the ball. This is the level where every fan falls in love with the game.

Being a relatively recent convert to the science of sabrmetrics, it's likely I'll add some "bad art" to much of the good work being done at Baseball Primer and within the baseball blogosphere. While I won't be contributing advanced analysis on the more popular issues, there are some basic and intermediate analyses that can be done with peripheral issues which should be well suited to my limited but growing capabilities.

Other projects likely to garner my attention are centralizing information about the Baltimore Orioles, past, present and future, Major League Baseball's transparent attempts to avoid putting a team in Washington, DC. Eventually, I may even tackle a site for thee local team.

Of course, there are things I simply haven't thought of... Yet!

Sunday, February 08, 2004

If I knew it was this easy, I would have done it a long time ago. Sometimes procrastination is the better part of valor. Mostly it's just fear and ignorance. Welcome to my humble web based abode, where 50¢ may buy you a cup of coffee and my thoughts on the Baltimore Orioles, Major League Baseball, life in general and my life in particular and sundry other issues as they come to my attention.